Today i had an opportunity to listen to Dr Anil Kakodkar, former chairman of atomic energy commission on the subject "Development of solar energy in India" at J.R.D.Tata auditorium in National institute of advanced studies, Bangalore.
This was the second time i was attending the talk by Dr kakodkar. The first talk was on the subject "Energy security in India" delivered in the faculty hall at IISC, Bangalore.
The first talk was little above my head since it was very technical. But today's talk was put in very plain language which anyone could understand.
I will not be going much into the details of the talk. In brief, the talk touched upon the present stage of research in solar technology in India. Dr Kakodkar spoke about the need to have a consortium of R & D people in India working on solar technology. He spoke at length on his current project of setting up three experimental standalone 5MW solar power plants. Each power plant would use a different technology.
Dr Kakodkar talked at length on the need for more research and collaboration of industry and academics to deliver a robust technology which would be "field ready" in less than two to three years.
I have picked up some numbers from his talk. What i will try and do now is to put those numbers in perspective in the overall context of energy scenario in India and argue out a case for enterprising individuals in the country.
Today, on an average for people connected to power grids, the power available in India is approximately 700 units (KWh) per year. It is needless to say about 350 to 400 million people in India are still not connected by state power grids.
If we look at the developed countries, the per capita availability of power is in the range of 3000 to 5000 units per capita per year. To be precise, for North America and western European countries, the availability of power is about 5000 units per capita per year.
If we have to catch up with the developed world, our production capacity must increase by atleast 7 times. So assuming that our population stabilizes at about 1.6 billion by the year 2017 and if we have to supply at the rate of 5000 units per capita per year , we have to be produce about 8 trillion units (KWh) of power per year.
These numbers are up for debate as Dr Kakodkar himself admits. Do we really need 5000 units per capita per year? This is the land of sadhus, ashrams, sanyais, yogis and above all Mahatma Gandhi. So is it not over ambitious to be aspiring at these huge numbers? Does it not lead to over-consumerism? These are complex and sometimes philosophical questions which we will try to address at some other time.
But if we have to be competitive and if we have to push up our human development index close to 1.0, it is inevitable that our power production must atleast quadruple within a decade.
But the next inevitable question is; At what cost do we want to increase our power production? Cost not only in monetary terms but also environmental and societal costs. We cannot depend on coal only for two primary reasons. Firstly at 8 trillion units per year, the coal reserves in the country will be empty in about 12 years. Secondly and more importantly, power production by coal is very unclean and will have a very huge negative impact on environment and public health. Nuclear technology is a very complex and controversial technology. It may take several years to realize its full potential if at all we decide to adopt it. Since many countries including the developed ones are moving away from nuclear power and since the safety aspects of nuclear power plants are not completely answered, it is unlikely that in India, we will see nuclear power in a big way.
So that leaves us with hydro power and a host of other renewable energy technologies as an answer.
Does it mean that few big multi nationals and a host of new companies and a plethora of enterprising individuals will innovate, manufacture, commission and run renewable energy power plants that will make India energy secure in the near term? looks unlikely; let me substantiate.
We have little more than 8 years to go for the year 2020. If we have to be a developed nation by 2020, we have to increase power production by leaps and bounds. Even to reach 3000 units per capita per year by the year 2020 looks like a gigantic task. (please note that the state of Goa without even a single power plant is able to supply 2000 units per capita per year)
The bigger challenge is to get about 400 million people who are presently disconnected from the grid into the ambit of state power grids. Its an engineering challenge by itself to reach the far flung areas in remote hills, deserts and snow clad mountains.
So where is the case for young enterprising individuals?
In my opinion there are a plethora of technologies that can be taken to the field very quickly without reinventing the wheel. Let me list them down and at the end i will substantiate how it is financially viable and sustainable for start ups and individuals.
1. Stand-alone small solar power plants : These are small off grid structures which can be commissioned and maintained by little trained staff and can generate up to 500 KW of power. This is sufficient for small villages.
2. LED based solar lights : These are already popular and costs are sub 2000 rupees. In bulk production, it costs even cheaper. These lights can be assembled and marketed locally. Lights of about 3 W LED powered by solar power can light up a small room for about 6 to 8 hours a day.
3. Solar water pumps: This technology is not field ready as of now. But if one can design and implement DC motor run solar water pump in a cost effective manner, it can be a very lucrative business model and also a great help to the farmers. However, capital subsidy is a must from the government since at present many state governments give power free of cost to the farmers.
4. Micro-hydro power plants : These are also popular and can go a long way in production and distribution of power in a de-centralized way. Most civil and Mechanical engineers know the kaplan wheel. A cost effective design can help in production of power from small streams. It is estimated that in the state of Arunachal pradesh, the production capacity from micro and mini power plants is to the tune of 50,000 MW. Not even 1/100th is harnessed as on today.
5. Bio-mass power: On available renewable, risk free technologies, bio-mass power is only next to hydro power in terms of production costs. It costs little over 2 rupees per unit for power production from dry bio-mass. Growing of bio-mass itself is a big business opportunity. Pelletizing and processing of bio-mass is another business opportunity.
There are plenty of other ideas in the area of bio-mass, solar ,wind energy and hybrid models that are simple and "field ready". As kakodkar puts it very nicely "Sky is the limit for ideas" .
But why are these technologies not implemented rapidly? There are certain systemic problems associated. Most important among them is lack of "Entrepreneurial spirit". In India, we celebrate this spirit and rightly so. We have one of the best companies in the world.
But what is lacking is the motivation among start ups to move away from cities. Most of the above technologies are relevant in rural and off-grid areas. We need people who can set up bases in rural areas. Commission, implement and maintain plants in the hinterlands of the country.
There are issues relating to proper information and skills for the entrepreneurs. But this is being addressed by many conferences and by many online courses.
But where is the case for a start up? It is quite straight forward. Established companies cannot move out from city centers because of huge over head costs. It is also not financially viable for them. So its easier for a start up or an enterprising individual to either set up units or even market renewable energy solutions.
All these are easier said than done. But with determination and some struggle to start with, these are achievable.
So can a burst of entrepreneurial drive at all parts of the country make us a developed nation by 2020? No, in my opinion. We will still need huge power plants and very high capital infrastructure to realize 8 trillion units in near future.
What i am essentially trying to argue is that there is a huge gap in supply and demand of power and there are plenty of opportunities for entrepreneurs of any size to pitch in and narrow the gap. Government and private companies are working towards bridging the gap. So there are many schemes by the government to encourage entrepreneurs and many venture capitalists are ready to invest in the energy sector (of any scale). So it is the right time to cash in.
This was the second time i was attending the talk by Dr kakodkar. The first talk was on the subject "Energy security in India" delivered in the faculty hall at IISC, Bangalore.
The first talk was little above my head since it was very technical. But today's talk was put in very plain language which anyone could understand.
I will not be going much into the details of the talk. In brief, the talk touched upon the present stage of research in solar technology in India. Dr Kakodkar spoke about the need to have a consortium of R & D people in India working on solar technology. He spoke at length on his current project of setting up three experimental standalone 5MW solar power plants. Each power plant would use a different technology.
Dr Kakodkar talked at length on the need for more research and collaboration of industry and academics to deliver a robust technology which would be "field ready" in less than two to three years.
I have picked up some numbers from his talk. What i will try and do now is to put those numbers in perspective in the overall context of energy scenario in India and argue out a case for enterprising individuals in the country.
Today, on an average for people connected to power grids, the power available in India is approximately 700 units (KWh) per year. It is needless to say about 350 to 400 million people in India are still not connected by state power grids.
If we look at the developed countries, the per capita availability of power is in the range of 3000 to 5000 units per capita per year. To be precise, for North America and western European countries, the availability of power is about 5000 units per capita per year.
If we have to catch up with the developed world, our production capacity must increase by atleast 7 times. So assuming that our population stabilizes at about 1.6 billion by the year 2017 and if we have to supply at the rate of 5000 units per capita per year , we have to be produce about 8 trillion units (KWh) of power per year.
These numbers are up for debate as Dr Kakodkar himself admits. Do we really need 5000 units per capita per year? This is the land of sadhus, ashrams, sanyais, yogis and above all Mahatma Gandhi. So is it not over ambitious to be aspiring at these huge numbers? Does it not lead to over-consumerism? These are complex and sometimes philosophical questions which we will try to address at some other time.
But if we have to be competitive and if we have to push up our human development index close to 1.0, it is inevitable that our power production must atleast quadruple within a decade.
But the next inevitable question is; At what cost do we want to increase our power production? Cost not only in monetary terms but also environmental and societal costs. We cannot depend on coal only for two primary reasons. Firstly at 8 trillion units per year, the coal reserves in the country will be empty in about 12 years. Secondly and more importantly, power production by coal is very unclean and will have a very huge negative impact on environment and public health. Nuclear technology is a very complex and controversial technology. It may take several years to realize its full potential if at all we decide to adopt it. Since many countries including the developed ones are moving away from nuclear power and since the safety aspects of nuclear power plants are not completely answered, it is unlikely that in India, we will see nuclear power in a big way.
So that leaves us with hydro power and a host of other renewable energy technologies as an answer.
Does it mean that few big multi nationals and a host of new companies and a plethora of enterprising individuals will innovate, manufacture, commission and run renewable energy power plants that will make India energy secure in the near term? looks unlikely; let me substantiate.
We have little more than 8 years to go for the year 2020. If we have to be a developed nation by 2020, we have to increase power production by leaps and bounds. Even to reach 3000 units per capita per year by the year 2020 looks like a gigantic task. (please note that the state of Goa without even a single power plant is able to supply 2000 units per capita per year)
The bigger challenge is to get about 400 million people who are presently disconnected from the grid into the ambit of state power grids. Its an engineering challenge by itself to reach the far flung areas in remote hills, deserts and snow clad mountains.
So where is the case for young enterprising individuals?
In my opinion there are a plethora of technologies that can be taken to the field very quickly without reinventing the wheel. Let me list them down and at the end i will substantiate how it is financially viable and sustainable for start ups and individuals.
1. Stand-alone small solar power plants : These are small off grid structures which can be commissioned and maintained by little trained staff and can generate up to 500 KW of power. This is sufficient for small villages.
2. LED based solar lights : These are already popular and costs are sub 2000 rupees. In bulk production, it costs even cheaper. These lights can be assembled and marketed locally. Lights of about 3 W LED powered by solar power can light up a small room for about 6 to 8 hours a day.
3. Solar water pumps: This technology is not field ready as of now. But if one can design and implement DC motor run solar water pump in a cost effective manner, it can be a very lucrative business model and also a great help to the farmers. However, capital subsidy is a must from the government since at present many state governments give power free of cost to the farmers.
4. Micro-hydro power plants : These are also popular and can go a long way in production and distribution of power in a de-centralized way. Most civil and Mechanical engineers know the kaplan wheel. A cost effective design can help in production of power from small streams. It is estimated that in the state of Arunachal pradesh, the production capacity from micro and mini power plants is to the tune of 50,000 MW. Not even 1/100th is harnessed as on today.
5. Bio-mass power: On available renewable, risk free technologies, bio-mass power is only next to hydro power in terms of production costs. It costs little over 2 rupees per unit for power production from dry bio-mass. Growing of bio-mass itself is a big business opportunity. Pelletizing and processing of bio-mass is another business opportunity.
There are plenty of other ideas in the area of bio-mass, solar ,wind energy and hybrid models that are simple and "field ready". As kakodkar puts it very nicely "Sky is the limit for ideas" .
But why are these technologies not implemented rapidly? There are certain systemic problems associated. Most important among them is lack of "Entrepreneurial spirit". In India, we celebrate this spirit and rightly so. We have one of the best companies in the world.
But what is lacking is the motivation among start ups to move away from cities. Most of the above technologies are relevant in rural and off-grid areas. We need people who can set up bases in rural areas. Commission, implement and maintain plants in the hinterlands of the country.
There are issues relating to proper information and skills for the entrepreneurs. But this is being addressed by many conferences and by many online courses.
But where is the case for a start up? It is quite straight forward. Established companies cannot move out from city centers because of huge over head costs. It is also not financially viable for them. So its easier for a start up or an enterprising individual to either set up units or even market renewable energy solutions.
All these are easier said than done. But with determination and some struggle to start with, these are achievable.
So can a burst of entrepreneurial drive at all parts of the country make us a developed nation by 2020? No, in my opinion. We will still need huge power plants and very high capital infrastructure to realize 8 trillion units in near future.
What i am essentially trying to argue is that there is a huge gap in supply and demand of power and there are plenty of opportunities for entrepreneurs of any size to pitch in and narrow the gap. Government and private companies are working towards bridging the gap. So there are many schemes by the government to encourage entrepreneurs and many venture capitalists are ready to invest in the energy sector (of any scale). So it is the right time to cash in.
For those who do want to be entrepreneurial about the solar energy space, here is some vital support from SELCO Incubation Centre - www.selcoincubation.org
ReplyDeleteThis is a chance to get guidance from a company which has installations in 120000 homes across rural districts of Karnataka & is a 17 yr old vetaran of the industry.
Appreciate your understanding and relevant thoughts for the need of universal energy supply through out INDIA.
ReplyDeleteBut apart from contribution from young entrepreneurs i also believe that Govt of India has equal & fundamental responsibility in making sure that generated electricity is reached out to the rural households. Universal electrification will remain a dream unless the government finds some MOJO in fulfilling this promise.I think it will take several decades to electrify all Indian households. I recently read that this was a TARGET supposed to have reached in 2007 and now its been pushed to 2017.
Many NGOs have provided solar lighting in villages and also trained local people to maintain solar lighting instruments. But I think rural electrification programmes have simply failed to recognize these efforts.
Also don't you think privatizing this sector we will see miracles happening because companies with profit motive would try hard to capture market share. This urge to capture the market in order to increase their revenue would make sure that more and more households across India would be electrified.
I know that I have slightly deviated from what you have written, but since you pointed out that the "Govt is trying to bridge the gap"
I pitched in my opinion on how the govt can also make it work with the existing resources in place.
Kiran,
ReplyDelete1.Privatizing essential services has its own drawback. Equity is never recognized in private enterprise handling large essential services. Classic example in handling of Mysore city water supply by Josco.
2. Your last point is little confusing. In my opinion, Government cannot meet the energy demand with the existing resources. Heavy investment are required in adding capacity and lowering T & D losses.
Sunil,
DeleteI do understand that there are pros and cons in privatization, but I am trying to pin down that there is no incentive for politicians to provide electricity to rural India. By privatization the urge to capture the market in order to increase their revenue would make sure that more and more households across India would be electrified.