Unpromising Statement By G8

Below is a statement issued by the G8 in the recently concluded G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy. Read it Carefully.

"We recognize the broad scientific view that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed 2 deg C. Because this global challenge can only be met by global response, we reiterate our willingness to share with all countries the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050, recognizing that [it] implies that global emissions need to peak as soon as possible and decline thereafter. As a part of this, we also support a goal of developed countries reducing emissions of GHGs in aggregate by 80% or more compared to 1990, or more recent years. Consistent with this ambitious long term objective, we will undertake robust aggregate and individual mid term reductions ,taking into account that baselines may vary............similarly major economies need to undertake quantifiable actions to collectively reduce emissions significantly below business-as-usual (BAU) by a specified year".

This is not at all a promising statement. My assessment of the statement is as below,

• Global leaders still think that the emission levels have not peaked. The statement gives room for further increase in emissions before it starts reducing. This is preposterous. As such there is no timeline fixed by which the emissions must peak or from where reduction of emission must start. All in all it means the business will be as usual without any commitment (or action).
• From where did this number of 50% come from? There is no scientific paper published that says that the temperature of the earth will not increase more than 2% if the carbon emissions are reduced by 50% of its 1990 levels. The report published by Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) in 2007 says that, there is a high probability of limiting the increase in earth's average temperature by 2 degrees if the global emissions of carbon can come down by 85% from its 2000 A.D levels.
• The only hope is that the grey areas will be sorted on in the COP-15 (conference of parties) in Copenhagen in December this year. Unless concrete decisions come out in Copenhagen, mitigating climate change will be a distant dream.
• But if the "You first" line of negotiations continue in Copenhagen, then it will be too late by the time the global leaders decide "who first?"
• Historically COP consensus or protocols have failed. The Kyoto protocol said that the industialized countries (Annex-1) must reduce their carbon emissions by 5% from their 1990 levels by 2012. Unfortunately, instead of reducing by 5%, they have increased their emissions by 10%. One hopes that it will not be repeated in Copenhagen.
  
• Since the publication of the reports by IPCC, all international negotiations have focused on "You first". There hasn't been any substantial progress in the negotiations. Even in the academic circles, there has been only talk about "Who is historically responsible?", "Who first?", "What will happen if the average temperature of the earth goes up by 2 degrees?" and so on. All these discussions are going nowhere apart from academic papers.
  

Unless concrete decisions are taken at Copenhagen, unless legally binding emission cuts are imposed on all countries, unless strong mid-term actions are taken by all countries inconvenient truth is inevitable.